The CrossBorder Capital Blog

US Dollar 2024 Outlook: Vulnerable to Looser Fed, But Supported by Strong Uptrend in Capital Flows   Structural capital inflows underpin the uptrend in the real trade-weighted US dollar basket. Notwithstanding a likely temporary 2024 pull-back in the US dollar as the Fed starts to ease, we expect medium-term trend weakness in both the Euro and Asian currency baskets.     See our latest published research, Global View: US Dollar 2024 Outlook: Vulnerable to  Looser Fed, But Supported by Strong Uptrend in Capital Flows - 23 rd December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com        

Update on the Fed… Sea Change?   The US Fed has likely over-tightened monetary policy. The challenge for 2024 is whether policy makers be able to get Fed Funds down fast enough? We remain bullish. Next year could prove a very favourable time for risk assets because they enjoy macro-regimes where GDP growth is sluggish and policy makers are easing. Already latest data reveal a solid pick-up in Fed Liquidity injections in the same week that the FOMC hinted that rates have peaked. Looking longer-term, more liquidity is coming as fast as government finances deteriorate.       See our latest published research, Global View: Update on the Fed… Sea Change? - 18 th December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com              ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 19/21 Catherine Place, London SW1E 6DX Tel: 020 3954 3430...

Global Liquidity Update - December 2023: Devastation or Liquidity Deluge?   Our Global Liquidity Index (GLI™) hit 25.9 at end-November 2023. This step-up in the pace of expansion confirms the steady liquidity uptrend in-place since October 2022. It underpins the bull market in risk assets. Many remain sceptical of holding risk assets, nervous that the World economy is about to plunge into the dark abyss of recession. Yet, bull markets always climb a ‘wall of worry’ and this one may be no different.       See our latest published research, Global Liquidity Latest – December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com  

The ‘Great Containment’: Global Liquidity and Asset Rotation   A Primer on Why Global Liquidity Matters   This report argues that the P/E multiple approach to investing is inappropriate at the market level. We describe an alternative method that uses investor behaviour and the Global Liquidity cycle. We show that asset allocation between major asset classes has flat-lined since the 2008/09 GFC: the ‘Great Containment’. However, there is an ever-active allocation across national stock markets as investors flip between Europe, the US and Emerging Markets.        See our latest published research, Global View: The ‘Great Containment’: Global Liquidity and Asset Rotation – 7 th December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com      

Monetary Shock and Au? Is This Gold's Breakout Moment?   Gold is a monetary hedge par excellence. Looking ahead our huge debt burden requires a sizeable monetary inflation to keep pace. The prospects for gold look attractive. Momentum is building for a breakout.     See our latest published research, Global View: Monetary Shock and Au? Is This Gold's Breakout Moment? - 29 th November 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com      

Why The US Fed May Find It Hard NOT to Cut Rates in 2024   The beckoning US Election Year is likely to focus investors both on economic prospects and on the potential for an easing of Fed policy. We remain more sanguine than the consensus about the World economy and expect inflation to fall quickly during 2024. This should allow a significant policy easing and herald a sequential move into the next ‘Calm’ phase of the Global Liquidity Cycle.       See our latest published research, Global View: Why The US Fed May Find It Hard NOT to Cut Rates in 2024 - 22 nd November 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com