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A Fork in the Road: PBoC Trending Higher; ECB, BoJ and BoE Drifting Lower, and Fed on the Cusp

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A Fork in the Road: PBoC Trending Higher; ECB, BoJ and BoE Drifting Lower, and Fed on the Cusp   Latest weekly balance sheet data from the World’s major Central Banks show that aggregate liquidity growth has slipped since the start of 2021 (latest 19.7% 3m ann.) Liquidity growth, in aggregate, has been largely range-bound since August 2020, but below the surface there has been a change in direction. While the ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England “slowed” through the period, the US Fed and the People’s Bank of China had been moving in the opposite direction, until now. The Fed has marked the New Year by reining in liquidity growth, but the PBoC is stepping up the pace. This has coincided with Renminbi strength versus the US dollar: up by some 3.5% in the last three months and around 7% through 2020.       See our latest published research, Weekly Global Liquidity Update 15 January 2021   For further information, or to change user options, please contact us a

Are these really bubble valuations?

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Inside The P/E Multiple – Are Stocks Really In A Bubble?   Years ago (in 1990 at Salomon Brothers) we first published a research piece entitled ‘Inside The P/E Multiple’. The methodology proved controversial. It was submitted to the Financial Analysts Journal (FAJ), which quickly rejected the paper and its conclusion that equities were then undervalued with the damming comment ‘fanciful’. Many may still disagree with the concept of macro-valuation shifts, but we think the analysis is worth re-visiting, largely because it can help explain today’s markets.     See our latest published research, Global View - Inside The P/E Multiple – Are Stocks Really In A Bubble? – January 2021   For further information, or to change user options, please contact us at crossbordercapital@liquidity.com          ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 19 / 21 Catherine Place, London SW1E 6DX Tel: 0203 954 3430        @crossbordercap    

Emerging Markets Liquidity Update: China Will Ease More in 2021

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  Emerging Markets Liquidity Update: China Will Ease More in 2021   The doggedly tight policies of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) appear to be changing towards ease.   Asian policy-makers, including China and probably Japan, are likely targeting stable currencies. Hence, they must absorb and monetize any capital inflows.       See our latest published research, Emerging Markets Latest GLI™ – January 2021   For further information, or to change user options, please contact us at crossbordercapital@liquidity.com            ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 19/21 Catherine Place , London SW1E 6D X Tel: 0203 954 3430      www.crossbordercapital.com CrossBorder Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Company Number 2687676.     

Global Liquidity Latest: Bubble Economies, Not Bubble Markets?

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Global Liquidity Latest: Bubble Economies, Not Bubble Markets?     Global Liquidity looks set to rise by a further US$25 trillion in 2021 (or 15%), with Central Banks likely adding an extra US$3½ trillion of QE.   The V-shaped recovery is plainly obvious, but renewed Chinese monetary ease will drive World economic growth far higher in 2021 than many currently expect.       See our latest published research, Global Liquidity Latest –   January 2021   For further information, or to change user options, please contact us at crossbordercapital@liquidity.com              ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 19/21 Catherine Place, London SW1E 6DX Tel: 0203 954 3430      www.crossbordercapital.com CrossBorder Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Company Number 2687676.        

Stable Economies, and in China’s Case a strong Renminbi, Allow Central Bankers Some Slack

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Stable Economies, and in China's Case a strong Renminbi, Allow Central Bankers Some Slack   Latest weekly balance sheet data from the World's major Central Banks show aggregate liquidity growth slipping lower in the last two weeks. Aggregate balance sheet growth has fallen to 17.8% (3m ann.). Liquidity growth has been largely range-bound since August, although recent weeks show a clear downtrend. This has coincided with general economic stability, despite ongoing lockdowns.       See our latest published research, Weekly Global Liquidity Update 8 January 2021   For further information, or to change user options, please contact us at crossbordercapital@liquidity.com              ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 19/21 Catherine Place, London SW1E 6DX Tel: 0203 954 3430         @crossbordercap   CrossBorder Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Re

Global Liquidity in 2021

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Global Liquidity in 2021: Another Story   Global Liquidity will break records in 2021, fuelled by further Central Bank QE as policy-makers accommodate continued large fiscal programmes. Yet, more-and-more liquidity is heading into real economies, and strong economies rarely have strong financial markets. This is both the warning and the opportunity in 2021.     See our latest published research, Global View - Global Liquidity in 2021: Another Story – January 2021   For further information, or to change user options, please contact us at crossbordercapital@liquidity.com          ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 19 / 21 Catherine Place, London SW1E 6DX Tel: 0203 954 3430        @crossbordercap     CrossBorder Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Company Number 2687676.         

Policymakers Reconfirm Their Support

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Policymakers Reconfirm Their Support   Latest weekly balance sheet data from the World’s major Central Banks show aggregate liquidity growth tick higher for the fourth consecutive week. While current growth rates are far short of the pace seen in the Spring, major Central Banks continue to pump liquidity into markets. Latest economic indicators evidence that recent lockdowns have barely caused a blip. That said, Central Bankers are erring on the side of caution.       See our latest published research, Weekly Global Liquidity Update 18 December 2020            ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 19/21 Catherine Place, London SW1E 6DX Tel: 0203 954 3430         @crossbordercap   CrossBorder Capital Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Company Number 2687676.