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Global Liquidity Latest: A Bigger Crash?!

Global Liquidity Latest: A Bigger Crash?! ·                 Central Banks are making a major error by hammering down too hard on the brake. World recession is inevitable   ·                 US 10-year Treasuries are worth buying on 3% yields, and given their prevailing yield cushion, high yield US corporates are not far off a 12-month break-even point     See our latest published research, Global Liquidity Latest – July 2022   IMPORTANT – Our email addresses are changing – emails from sender@liquidity.com will become sender@crossbordercapital.com from the 1st of July 2022. After this date emails to ANY email account ending in liquidity.com will NOT work. Please update your records before the 1st of July 2022. You may also receive a direct communication from your contact to this effect. Please feel free to contact us on info@crossbordercapital.com at any time about this change.

A Second leg down

Why Are Equity Investors So Upbeat?   We think of investment markets as largely driven by two moving parts: inflows of liquidity and the portfolio exposure of investors to risk assets. The first leg down in a bear squeeze often comes from falling liquidity: the second leg down comes from greater risk aversion. Using US data, we show that this comprises both a lower demand for equity risk and the greater supply of government bonds.       See our latest published research, Global View Why Are Equity Investors So Upbeat? - June 2022     IMPORTANT – Our email addresses are changing – emails from sender@liquidity.com will become sender@crossbordercapital.com from the 1st of July 2022. After this date emails to ANY email account ending in liquidity.com will NOT work. Please update your records before the 1st of July 2022. You may also receive a direct communication from your contact to this effect. Please feel free to contact us on info@crossbordercapital.com at

The Next Crisis?

“Whatever It Takes” …and More: Euro Set To Fall Below Parity   ‘Muddling through’ is the moniker of the Euro-system. In its present unstable form, it faces permanent crises. The Euro’s underlying structural flaws are now again being exposed by the latest global monetary tensions. Since a political fix seems unlikely, the only practical path for policy-makers is to ‘do a Japan’ and crash the Euro.       See our latest published research, Global View “Whatever It Takes” …and More: Euro Set To Fall Below Parity - June 2022     IMPORTANT – Our email addresses are changing – emails from sender@liquidity.com will become sender@crossbordercapital.com from the 1st of July 2022. After this date emails to ANY email account ending in liquidity.com will NOT work. Please update your records before the 1st of July 2022. You may also receive a direct communication from your contact to this effect. Please feel free to contact us on info@crossbordercapital.com at any time

Global Liquidity Latest: “Liquidity Is Terrible”

Global Liquidity Latest: "Liquidity Is Terrible"   ·            US QT 'officially' starts this month, June 2022, but the 'effective' balance sheet has already dropped by a whopping US$1 trillion since December 2021 ·            China is facing major downward pressure on her currency, sufficient to cause the PBoC to tighten domestic liquidity policies by an extra US$95 billion     See our latest published research, Global Liquidity Latest – June 2022   IMPORTANT – Our email addresses are changing – emails from sender@liquidity.com will become sender@crossbordercapital.com from the 1st of July 2022. After this date emails to ANY email account ending in liquidity.com will NOT work. Please update your records before the 1st of July 2022. You may also receive a direct communication from your contact to this effect. Please feel free to contact us on info@crossbordercapital.com at any time about this change.

Yuan Devaluation?

China At A Critical Turning Point: Could The Yuan Devalue?   For more than five years, until March of this year, Asian currency volatility has been unusually low. We previously suggested that a de facto ‘Asian Euro’ had formed as a pathway that could allow the Chinese Yuan to challenge the US dollar in cross-border markets. Since the Ukraine invasion, at least, the US dollar has been weaponized. A stronger US dollar has heaped pressure on the Yuan, forcing China to tighten policy at a time when her economy is reeling from C-19 lockdowns. This could end badly with a Chinese recession and/or Yuan devaluation.     See our latest published research, Global View – China At A Critical Turning Point: Could The Yuan Devalue? - June 2022     IMPORTANT – Our email addresses are changing – emails from sender@liquidity.com will become sender@crossbordercapital.com from the 1st of July 2022. After this date emails to ANY email account ending in liquidity.com will NOT wo

Credit Crunch?

Credit Update – Car Crash Coming (CCC)   Global Liquidity is heading lower, paced by an aggressive US Federal Reserve seemingly determined to ‘break something’ in the name of curing inflation. This warns of a coming car crash in the credit markets and a recession by Q3 2022. Indeed, the US Treasury market has been warning about this for months       See our latest published research, Global View – Credit Update – Car Crash Coming (CCC) - May 2022     IMPORTANT – Our email addresses are changing – emails from sender@liquidity.com will become sender@crossbordercapital.com from the 1st of July 2022. After this date emails to ANY email account ending in liquidity.com will NOT work. Please update your records before the 1st of July 2022. You may also receive a direct communication from your contact to this effect. Please feel free to contact us on info@crossbordercapital.com at any time about this change.

A Second Leg Down?

What Could Drive This Bear Market … Even Lower?   Beware bear market rallies. They are enticing and exciting, but the ultimate drivers of this bear remain firmly in place. We look set for at least a 30% peak to trough decline in the major indexes. Led by the US Fed, Central Banks are tightening. And, forced by the combination of C-19 lockdowns, the fragile Yuan and tight PBoC, the Chinese economy is skidding. A weaker Chinese will badly hurt World earnings.     See our latest published research, Global View – What Could Drive This Bear Market … Even Lower? - May 2022     IMPORTANT – Our email addresses are changing – emails from sender@liquidity.com will become sender@crossbordercapital.com from the 1st of July 2022. After this date emails to ANY email account ending in liquidity.com will NOT work. Please update your records before the 1st of July 2022. You may also receive a direct communication from your contact to this effect. Please feel free to contact