The CrossBorder Capital Blog

US Monetary Policy After The 'Great U-Turn'   'True' Fed Funds policy rates (incorporating the effects of QT) are nearer 5-6% on our estimates than the stated 2½%. This 'tight' monetary stance is unsustainable and will be followed by a substantial monetary easing in both US and World Markets. On top, a structural shortage of 'safe' assets and soft economy will underpin bond returns. We expect a yield curve steepening, led by falling near-term maturities, and rising bond market volatility.  

The Real ‘Fake News’ Concerns Chinese Policy   China is big and matters to all investors. But forget the hyped-up stories, the fact is that China is simply not easing yet. It should and it may ease soon, but so far the full January and provisional February data from the People’s Bank show that policy remains moderately tight .