The CrossBorder Capital Blog

How Central Banks Steepen Yield Curves     Two things matter for yield curves – Central Bank policies and yield volatility. Both are set to expand. Over the next few months, it is highly likely that the US Treasury curve could steepen, but that still means that 10-year yields first test 1.50%. US policy rates look set to drop to 1%.      

Forget The US Fed For Now, The Real Monetary Action Is Happening In China   •       China injects RMB 1.1 trillion into money markets in last six weeks •       June to date sees RMB 557 billion injected: biggest jump since November 2017 •       PBoC's October to April mini-tightening has now been reversed •       ‘PBoC (People's Bank)-Watching’  set to rival 'Fed-Watching'  

Bonds Are Screaming A Big Warning   US bond yields have tumbled over the past few months. But analysis of the US term structure and using data from a ‘new’ and more robust parameter warns that they could tumble further. US 10-year Treasury yields could fall by 100bp and deliver near-15% returns over the next 12 months. Another implication is that US manufacturing industry slips into recession