The CrossBorder Capital Blog

Monetary Shock and Au? Is This Gold's Breakout Moment?   Gold is a monetary hedge par excellence. Looking ahead our huge debt burden requires a sizeable monetary inflation to keep pace. The prospects for gold look attractive. Momentum is building for a breakout.     See our latest published research, Global View: Monetary Shock and Au? Is This Gold's Breakout Moment? - 29 th November 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com      

Why The US Fed May Find It Hard NOT to Cut Rates in 2024   The beckoning US Election Year is likely to focus investors both on economic prospects and on the potential for an easing of Fed policy. We remain more sanguine than the consensus about the World economy and expect inflation to fall quickly during 2024. This should allow a significant policy easing and herald a sequential move into the next ‘Calm’ phase of the Global Liquidity Cycle.       See our latest published research, Global View: Why The US Fed May Find It Hard NOT to Cut Rates in 2024 - 22 nd November 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com      

Mrs Watanabe’s Threat To World Bond Markets   We argue here that Japan’s shifting YCC policy is far from the greatest threat to global bond markets from Asia. A bigger issue is the stability of Japan’s huge household savings pool. Currently invested in low yielding deposits, it is anchoring low World interest rates. However, faster Japanese inflation and/ or a rapid economic rebound across the Asian economies, could lead to a significant asset shift away from global bonds.         See our latest published research, Global View: Mrs Watanabe’s Threat To World Bond Markets - 16 th November 2023  

Global Liquidity Update: Looking East   ·            GLI™ (Global Liquidity Index) trails at a still low 20.1 reading (range 0-100). Asia strongest region, Europe weakest ·            World Central Bank Liquidity subindex rose to 27.3 in October, largely fuelled by non-Western policy-makers ·            More than half of World markets are in positive Rebound or Calm regimes ·            Slowing Asian capital outflows add upward pressure to bond yields     See our latest published research, Global Liquidity Latest – November 2023  

Future Trends in World Debt and Global Liquidity   This report is inspired by the release of latest World debt estimates for 2022 by the IMF. We argue that the evidence of rising debt levels, particularly across the Advanced economies, are dangerous and, at least, require more ‘liquidity’. The cost of adding liquidity is that this will mean faster monetary inflation. We are equivocal whether this spills over into high street or asset prices, but whichever, investors need to consider owning more long-term monetary hedges, such as gold… or crypto.       See our latest published research, Global View: Future Trends in World Debt and Global Liquidity - 8 th November 2023   For further information, or to change user options, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com