The CrossBorder Capital Blog

Which World Stock Markets Will Out-Perform Over The Next Two Years?   Whereas bottom-up stock market analysis focuses on earnings prospects, we look at investor behaviour and liquidity from a top-down perspective. This tells us that aggregate stock market returns are largely determined by changes in investors’ risk appetite, namely their overall portfolio positioning. This knowledge could have timed a large-scale re-entry into equities in late-March 2020. Looking ahead, prospects for the next two years look decent, particularly for the UK, Canada and Italy, among others.       See our latest published research, Global View - Which World Stock Markets Will Out-Perform Over The Next Two Years?  – September 2020          —————————————————————————...

Capital Wars: Killing The Dollar Softly   The 2014-17 ‘safe asset’ capital surge into the US dollar has peaked and is now cooling. Added to this, the Fed’s new excess inflation goal will surely encourage a still weaker US dollar, perhaps by 20-25%? By targeting their currencies and so cushioning a weaker US unit, Asian policy-makers will force adjustment on to the Euro and gold. But can the debt and deflation-prone Eurozone cope with a much stronger Euro? And, what will stronger gold (and liquidity) mean for the Emerging Markets?       See our latest published research, Global View - Capital Wars: Killing The Dollar Softly – September 2020  

Danger?! Is the Y2K Dot-Com Bubble Being Re-blown?   The short answer is ‘no’. We are not saying that liquidity is unimportant. Far from it. But looking inside the standard P/E multiple shows that several other things are going on that look very different to the Y2K bubble. True, liquidity is similarly buoyant, but US equity allocations have fallen from last year and profitability is at a cyclical low. Adjusted valuations show a more benign stock market rally that can keep going.       See our latest published research, Global View - Danger?! Is the Y2K Dot-Com Bubble Being Re-blown? – September 2020