How the World Reacts to USD Weakness: Could EM double?

-

Capital Wars: Killing The Dollar Softly

 

The 2014-17 ‘safe asset’ capital surge into the US dollar has peaked and is now cooling. Added to this, the Fed’s new excess inflation goal will surely encourage a still weaker US dollar, perhaps by 20-25%? By targeting their currencies and so cushioning a weaker US unit, Asian policy-makers will force adjustment on to the Euro and gold. But can the debt and deflation-prone Eurozone cope with a much stronger Euro? And, what will stronger gold (and liquidity) mean for the Emerging Markets?

 

 

 

See our latest published research, Global View - Capital Wars: Killing The Dollar Softly – September 2020

 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Global Liquidity Update - December 2023: Devastation or Liquidity Deluge?

-
Global Liquidity Update - December 2023: Devastation or Liquidity Deluge?   Our Global Liquidity Index (GLI™) hit 25.9 at end-November 2023. This step-up in the pace of expansion confirms the steady liquidity uptrend in-place since October 2022. It underpins the bull market in risk assets. Many remain sceptical of holding risk assets, nervous that the World economy is about to plunge into the dark abyss of recession. Yet, bull markets always climb a ‘wall of worry’ and this one may be no different.       See our latest published research, Global Liquidity Latest – December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com  
Read more

Understanding Global Liquidity

-
The ‘Great Containment’: Global Liquidity and Asset Rotation   A Primer on Why Global Liquidity Matters   This report argues that the P/E multiple approach to investing is inappropriate at the market level. We describe an alternative method that uses investor behaviour and the Global Liquidity cycle. We show that asset allocation between major asset classes has flat-lined since the 2008/09 GFC: the ‘Great Containment’. However, there is an ever-active allocation across national stock markets as investors flip between Europe, the US and Emerging Markets.        See our latest published research, Global View: The ‘Great Containment’: Global Liquidity and Asset Rotation – 7 th December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com      
Read more

China and Emerging Market Liquidity December Update: China, The US Dollar and Emerging Markets

-
China and Emerging Market Liquidity Update: China, The US Dollar and Emerging Markets   Emerging Market Liquidity conditions improved noticeably in November 2023, according to the jump in our EMLI™ index to a reading of 55.1. This rise was underpinned by buoyant cross-border capital inflows from foreign investors (index 68.6); an impressive rebound in private sector liquidity generation (index 54.1), reflecting signs of firming commodity markets, and further signs of easing by regional Central Banks (index 63.7), noticeably China (index 72.1). This provides a solid base for prospective EM stock market gains in 2024.       See our latest published research, China and Emerging Market Latest GLI™ – December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com  
Read more