The Coming Shakeout!
Buckle Up … The Coming Shake-Out
Bonds are suffering their worst (monthly) run since the 1950s in length, if not yet in scale. Worst is set to come because of the strength of the upcoming economic rebound from COVID. We target 2½% for US 10-year Treasuries, but the key movement from here will likely involve rising real yields. Break-evens have already jumped higher. This rise in real rates is also bad news for equities, because historically they only benefit from the early stages of an inflation pick-up. The coming market regime will see equities and bonds begin to more positively correlate (on the downside).
See our latest published research, Global View - Buckle Up …The Coming Shake-Out – March 2021
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