A Second Leg Down?

-

What Could Drive This Bear Market … Even Lower?

 

Beware bear market rallies. They are enticing and exciting, but the ultimate drivers of this bear remain firmly in place. We look set for at least a 30% peak to trough decline in the major indexes. Led by the US Fed, Central Banks are tightening. And, forced by the combination of C-19 lockdowns, the fragile Yuan and tight PBoC, the Chinese economy is skidding. A weaker Chinese will badly hurt World earnings.

 

 

See our latest published research, Global View – What Could Drive This Bear Market … Even Lower? - May 2022

 

 

IMPORTANT – Our email addresses are changing – emails from sender@liquidity.com will become sender@crossbordercapital.com from the 1st of July 2022. After this date emails to ANY email account ending in liquidity.com will NOT work. Please update your records before the 1st of July 2022. You may also receive a direct communication from your contact to this effect. Please feel free to contact us on info@crossbordercapital.com at any time about this change.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

China and Emerging Market Liquidity December Update: China, The US Dollar and Emerging Markets

-
China and Emerging Market Liquidity Update: China, The US Dollar and Emerging Markets   Emerging Market Liquidity conditions improved noticeably in November 2023, according to the jump in our EMLI™ index to a reading of 55.1. This rise was underpinned by buoyant cross-border capital inflows from foreign investors (index 68.6); an impressive rebound in private sector liquidity generation (index 54.1), reflecting signs of firming commodity markets, and further signs of easing by regional Central Banks (index 63.7), noticeably China (index 72.1). This provides a solid base for prospective EM stock market gains in 2024.       See our latest published research, China and Emerging Market Latest GLI™ – December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com  
Read more

The 2024 US dollar outlook

-
US Dollar 2024 Outlook: Vulnerable to Looser Fed, But Supported by Strong Uptrend in Capital Flows   Structural capital inflows underpin the uptrend in the real trade-weighted US dollar basket. Notwithstanding a likely temporary 2024 pull-back in the US dollar as the Fed starts to ease, we expect medium-term trend weakness in both the Euro and Asian currency baskets.     See our latest published research, Global View: US Dollar 2024 Outlook: Vulnerable to  Looser Fed, But Supported by Strong Uptrend in Capital Flows - 23 rd December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com        
Read more

Global Liquidity Update - December 2023: Devastation or Liquidity Deluge?

-
Global Liquidity Update - December 2023: Devastation or Liquidity Deluge?   Our Global Liquidity Index (GLI™) hit 25.9 at end-November 2023. This step-up in the pace of expansion confirms the steady liquidity uptrend in-place since October 2022. It underpins the bull market in risk assets. Many remain sceptical of holding risk assets, nervous that the World economy is about to plunge into the dark abyss of recession. Yet, bull markets always climb a ‘wall of worry’ and this one may be no different.       See our latest published research, Global Liquidity Latest – December 2023   For further information, please contact us at research@crossbordercapital.com  
Read more