The Fed After Jackson Hole….Policy error building
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The Markets After Jackson Hole: Don't Fight The Fed…Give In Now!
Post-Jackson Hole, the Fed has its head-down and is determined to battle inflation. US policy is front-ended loaded and policy-makers even warn of recessionary pain ahead. However, the quantitative liquidity dimension is being ignored. Fed B/S reduction or QT is asymmetric and non-linear in its effects. It will cause funding markets to buckle, and may trigger problems in international currency markets, read Euro. This could force a liquidity pivot in 2023. Until then it is risk-off.
See our latest published research, Global View: The Markets After Jackson Hole: Don't Fight The Fed…Give In Now! - August 2022
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