Recession or Recovery? When not to believe the Yield Curve

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The US Treasury Yield Curve May Be Hugely Distorted And Falsely Signal A Deep Recession

 

Many are worried by the large inversion in the US Treasury yield curve. Specific yield curve spreads are not always good predictors of the business cycle. This time the hugely negative term premia and rising inflation trend further question their reliability. In short, fears of a big recession may be misplaced.

 

 

See our latest published research, Global View: The US Treasury Yield Curve May Be Hugely Distorted And Falsely Signal A Deep Recession – January 2023

 

 

 

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