The Trouble with Safe Assets

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It Ain’t The Economy…

 

Long-term bond yields continue to edge higher, hurting collateral, depleting Global Liquidity and souring the mood of investors. The mainstream financial media ascribe this to a hotter than expected real economy and more stubborn inflation. However, our daily estimates of ‘World GDP’ based on factors like cyclically sensitive commodity prices, corporate credit spreads and exchange rates of major exporters show little evidence of either recession or boom. This appears to be confirmed by a conventional nowcast model of World GDP.

 

 

 

See our latest published research, Global View: It Ain’t The Economy… 25th August 2023

 

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